- 24/04/2024
- Category: Commentaries
Author: Saqib Fardan Ahmada[i]
Editor: M Perdana Karim
The dust has settled on the 2024 Presidential Election, and Prabowo Subianto has emerged with over 50% of the votes. Despite Jokowi’s status as the incumbent, seen as playing a part in Prabowo’s “victory,” it’s crucial to examine how a figure with a robust military background shifted gears to adopt the persona of a cuddly grandpa. However, beneath this newfound image, Prabowo, in some ways, still exhibits traits of a strongman leader, though we refrain from labelling him explicitly as authoritarian.
An intriguing aspect of Prabowo’s ascent to power in Indonesia is how it mirrors a broader global political trend. His forthcoming presidency aligns with the times; since 2000, the rise of strongman leaders has been a defining feature of global politics.
How does the current political situation in Indonesia fit into the trend of strongman leadership alongside global political trends? Moreover, how do strongman leaders worldwide utilize social media as a tool for propaganda and social control?
Strongman style politics: Control of the people or people under control?
It’s important to note that the strongman leadership style differs from past authoritarian leadership. According to Rachman (2022), the strongman style is now commonly observed among elected politicians within democratic systems. Leaders with a strongman approach operate within democratic frameworks, such as Donald Trump, who emerged in one of the largest democratic nations.
Within this trend, we see the erosion of democracy underway. The prolonged decline of democracy is deepening, and the rise of strongman leaders is at the heart of this process. This is because the political style of strongman leaders prioritizes leader instinct over adherence to the law and institutional norms. Notable examples of countries following this trend include Turkey (Erdogan), Brazil (Jair Bolsonaro), and India (Narendra Modi)[ii].
What’s fascinating in this discourse is that strongman leaders not only operate within democratic systems but also leverage social media to consolidate power through democratic means. With few exceptions, these leaders demonstrate remarkable adeptness in exploiting social media platforms. The emergence of new forms of political communication is contributing to the rise of strongman politics.
Donald Trump famously made Twitter his primary communication channel. Through this medium, he established direct communication with voters, circumventing what he labelled as “fake news” media. The personal connection between a strongman leader and their followers is vital for cultivating a personality cult, and platforms like Twitter serve as ideal tools for fostering this connection.
While traditional media aims to verify the accuracy of a story, social media simply asks users whether they “like” or “dislike” a post, focusing more on emotions and loyalty than on rational judgment.
In the early days of the internet, many believed that the free flow of information would naturally bolster democracy. The idea was that it would make it hard for authoritarian leaders to control the news and would encourage public scrutiny. There’s some truth to that. But we need to be cautious about that optimism. On the flip side, social media is a perfect platform for the kind of political messaging favored by strongmen – catchy slogans or dubious claims that stir emotions and quickly get shared by followers.
With the internet now being an essential part of life in modern society, Chinese authorities are using it to monitor the activities of their citizens. Every journey, online transaction, or social media post can be tracked. Citizens suspected of engaging in subversive activities can then be penalized through the “social credit” system, where everything from job promotions to the ability to take out loans can be at risk for critics.
As a result, the function of control isn’t in the hands of the general public. Instead, the development of social media technology is utilized by strongmen as a direct communication tool with the masses, and it’s also seen as a dangerous instrument of social control. This trend isn’t without evidence; the V-Dem Institute titled its 2023 democracy report “Defiance in the Face of Autocratization”. The report highlights several trends of declining democracy worldwide, including the worsening of freedom of expression in 35 countries in 2022, compared to just 7 countries a decade ago.
Prabowo’s victory: Indonesia’s strongman leadership era?
Let’s revisit Prabowo’s win in the 2024 presidential election. Does it signal the beginning of a strongman era in Indonesia? Throughout his campaigns, Prabowo’s image has undergone shifts, from a military-nationalist persona in 2014 to an Islamist one in 2019. In 2024, he adopted “gemoy” image (softer image), aiming to balance his traditional tough image with a more appealing persona to younger Indonesian voters as a “firm” leader. While the “firm” stance remains his core among older generations, the softer image helps soften Prabowo’s overall image, aligning with the campaign narrative that choosing a former tough military figure who has evidently changed shouldn’t be feared.
Behind Prabowo’s softer campaign lies a history rich in strongman traits. According to Kurlantzick (2024), Prabowo has openly expressed disdain for Indonesia’s fragile democratic system, campaigning with promises to emulate strongman leaders like former Filipino president Rodrigo Duterte or Turkish leader Erdogan. He even made a dramatic entrance at a rally, famously riding a white horse, symbolizing the highest form of a strongman, promising to solve issues independently, bypassing what he deemed as a messy democratic process (Kurlantzick, 2024).
Moreover, and perhaps most disturbingly, numerous credible allegations suggest that during the 1990s, under both the authoritarian regime of Suharto and the post-Suharto era, General Prabowo (who at one point married Suharto’s daughter) committed widespread human rights violations. These include alleged kidnappings, torture, and possibly forced disappearances of political dissidents, leading to his dismissal from the military, as noted by The New York Times, after being found guilty of these crimes.
He is also accused of playing a significant role in triggering brutal violence in East Timor during its referendum to leave Indonesia, facing a wave of massacres by Indonesian special forces, led and trained in cruelty by Prabowo and his associates. East Timor was left devastated, with hundreds, if not thousands, of civilians killed in the massacres. For years, Prabowo was denied a visa to the United States due to these allegations.
All his history makes it clear he’s a strongman figure. However, despite all the dark past associated with Prabowo, it seems to have been overshadowed by his cuddly branding. Now, he’s being portrayed as an endearing old man with his awkward dance moves. The voters have spoken, and it looks like the Prabowo-Gibran duo has clinched this contest, even in just one round. The ex-military general, accused of rights abuses and war crimes during the Suharto regime, has emerged victorious in a modern-day democratic vote. His rebranding for the 2024 election was part of the winning strategy (Mao, 2024).
The most pressing issue now is discussing how he’ll handle his presidency going forward. The cuddly gimmicks seem like they’ll be dropped soon, and he’ll revert to his role as a strongman leader. Indonesian democracy is at a critical juncture. The concerns of democracy activists aren’t baseless; in recent years, we’ve seen restrictions on societal movements or government criticism. Changes in the Information and Electronic Transactions Law (UU ITE) have given authorities vague articles to apprehend anyone they don’t like (Hadiz, 2024). Furthermore, the three largest democratic countries – the United States, Indonesia, and Brazil – have all shown authoritarian tendencies in the past decade (V-Dem Institute, 2023). The public mandate and power are on the line.
Therefore, in the era of strongman leadership, social media is used to cultivate their cult personality and control society, rather than the other way around. The political landscape in Indonesia, exemplified by Prabowo’s victory in the 2024 election, seems to confirm this trend. Prabowo’s behavior and past only reinforce this notion. Hence, social media should be leveraged to control society and strengthen the democratization process. A healthy democracy isn’t one that relies on elites but one that’s constantly pursued (Wadipalapa, 2024). Otherwise, social media will paradoxically end up controlling and polarizing the connected society.
References
Hadiz, Vedi R. “Demokrasi Bisa Bunuh Diri: Pelajaran Dari Pemilu Dunia.” kompas.id, January 24, 2024. https://www.kompas.id/baca/opini/2024/01/24/demokrasi-bisa-bunuh-diri-pelajaran-dari-pemilu-dunia.
Kurlantzick, Joshua. “Prabowo Wins. Does Indonesian Democracy Lose?” Council on Foreign Relations, February 14, 2024. https://www.cfr.org/blog/prabowo-wins-does-indonesian-democracy-lose.
Rachman, Gideon. The age of The strongman: How the cult of the leader threatens democracy around the world. Random House, 2022.
Temby, Quinton. “The Prabowo Campaign’s ‘Cute Aggression.’” Indopacifica (blog), February 20, 2024. https://www.indopacifica.com/p/the-prabowo-campaigns-cute-aggression.
V-Dem Institute, Democracy Report 2023: Defiance in the Face of Autocratization (Gothenburg Sweden: University of Gothenburg, 2023)
Wadipalapa, Rendy Pahrun. “Sesat Pikir Tentang Demokrasi Indonesia.” kompas.id, February 22, 2024. https://www.kompas.id/baca/opini/2024/02/20/sesat-pikir-tentang-demokrasi-indonesia?open_from=Opini_Page.
[i] Departemen Pembangunan Sosial dan Kesejahteraan, Fisipol UGM
[ii] Further details provided in Rachman (2022). Each leader undoubtedly exhibits their own unique strongman characteristics.
