- 23/12/2016
- Category: Commentaries
The year of 2016 is marked with the growth of games technology which reached its peak level. This moment arguably marked with the emergence of Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) games. Virtual Reality is a technology that stimulates a real virtual activity into digital realm, whilst Augmented Reality is a superimposition from sensory input produced by computer such as, voice, video, graphics, or GPS data to the real world. In other word, Augmented Reality is combining digital games with real life activity. In fact, both of these technologies are growing simultaneously. Nevertheless, the growth of Virtual Reality games appears to be more dominant than Augmented Reality in 2016. However, there was an interesting fact about it, where according to Google Trends, it appears that at one point Augmented Reality has surpassed the popularity Virtual Reality. This anomaly about Augmented Reality games popularity could be associated with the boom of Pokémon GO phenomenon.
Figure 1: Pokemon Go in the Streams of Interests in Augmented and Virtual Reality Games
Pokémon GO is obviously an innovative game. This game operates with Pokémon characters and the players can track their desired Pokémon by using game application that can be downloaded on their gadget. Then, this game can be run in actual life by using combination of GPS and augmented reality. These features already make Pokémon GO as the most popular mobile games in 2016. Since its release on July 2016, Pokémon GO has broken the record as the most downloaded game in its first week released in Appstore. Besides, according to data published by Apple, in its first week released, Pokémon GO has attracted its user to spend their time for approximately 33 minutes to play the game, whilst the average of iOS users only spend 22 minutes of their time on Facebook and 18 minutes on Snapchat. The phenomenon of Pokémon GO has successfully made gamers to gather simultaneously in public spaces and spend a lot of their times to catch popular characters such Pikachu and Snorlax, as what happened in New York’s Central Park. Unfortunately, the phenomenal popularity of Pokémon GO only lasted in a short period of time.
Figure 2: Interests in Augmented Reality Games Over Time
Pokémon GO reached its peak popularity two weeks after its release and shortly loss 80% of their users on the mid August 2016. Meanwhile, in the mid of September, Pokémon GO’s revenue has fallen considerably from $16 Million per day to $2 Million per day, and its downloads record has also fallen drastically from 27 Million per day to 700.000 per day. A research conducted by Ars Technical has shown that the significant loss of Pokémon GO’s users is the worst compared to the other mobile games.
The decreased number of Pokémon GO popularity is correlated with several factors that might become a lesson for other game developer to develop Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality or other conventional games. Firstly, Pokémon GO carries a vision as an “Actual Game”, but on the contrary, in the mid of its popularity, Pokémon GO’s developers surprisingly removed its appealing features, such as “Nearby Tracking” feature that enabled users to track any nearby Pokémons. This feature disappeared because the developers could not overcome issues that kept on appearing on the Pokémon GO’s Niantic system. Secondly, there were no mechanisms in Pokémon GO to enhance interaction among players, particularly in keeping them loyal in playing the game. Actually, it was not a problem if the sole purpose was just to increase the downloads number, but it obviously could not maintain its user presence and loyalty. The game did not innovate much in regard to players’ interactions and the likes. Thirdly, the developers did not introduce new features immediately that caused boredom among its. These several reasons about the decreasing number of Pokémon GO’s popularity could become precious lessons for other developers to be more cautious to not remove their popular features. In addition, developers also need to “talk to their customers” to listen to what users request, and they also need to explain about the negative impacts of the application updates on their features.
The prospect of AR and VR games in 2017 is definitely still high. Market & Markets predicts that the Augmented Reality device market is expected to reach $659,98 million by 2018, while the immersive Virtual Reality device market is expected to reach $407,51 million by 2018. Digi-Capital also believes that AR/VR could hit $150 billion in revenue by 2020, with AR taking around $120 billion and VR $30 billion. However, CCS Insight has released a forecast that more than 12 million Virtual Reality headsets will be sold in 2017, with the sales of Augmented Reality smart glasses expected to be generate $1,2 billion in the same year. Those predictions certainly could happen only if they are supported by innovative development of AR and VR technologies in response to their market demand. These chances and opportunities could also give a new potential market for developers to develop a new innovative and attractive Augmented Reality or Virtual Reality games in the future.
References :
BBC News (online), “why pokemon go may have passed its peak”, 24th August 2016 <http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-37176782>, accessed 14th December 2016
CCS Insight (online), “Augmented and Virtual Reality Devices to Become a $4 Billion-Plus Business in Three Years”, 2016, <http://www.ccsinsight.com/press/company-news/2251-augmented-and-virtual-reality-devices-to-become-a-4-billion-plus-business-in-three-years>, accessed 19th December 2016
Digi-Capital (online), “Augmented Virtual Reality to Hit $150 billion disrupting mobile by 2020”, 2015, <http://www.digi-capital.com/news/2015/04/augmentedvirtual-reality-to-hit-150-billion-disrupting-mobile-by-2020/#.WFgAz7J9601>, accessed 19th December 2016
Hollister, Sean, “Silence is Killing Pokemon Go”, C-Net (online), 2nd August 2016, <https://www.cnet.com/au/news/pokemon-go-transparency-niantic-needs-to-communicate-editorial/>, accessed 15th December 2016
Market and Markets (online), “Augmented Reality and Virtual Reality Market by Device Type (HMD, HUD, Handheld Device, Gesture Tracking, Projector and Display Wall), Component (Sensor, Display, Camera, and Software), Vertical, and Geography – Global Forecast to 2022”, May 2016, <http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/augmented-reality-virtual-reality-market-1185.html>, accessed 19th December 2016
Molina, Brett, “Report: Pokemon Go downloads top 15 million”, USA Today (online), 13th July 2016, <http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/gaming/2016/07/13/report-pokemon-go-downloads-top-15-million/87022202/> , accessed 14th December 2016
Orland. Kyle, “How long can we except the pokemon go craze to last?”, Ars Technica (online), 25th August 2016, <http://arstechnica.com/gaming/2016/08/how-long-can-we-expect-the-pokemon-go-craze-to-last/>, accessed 14th December 2016
Thier, Dave, “Nearby tracking is still broken in pokemon go, and might be for a while”, Forbes (online), 26th Juli 2016, <http://www.forbes.com/sites/davidthier/2016/07/26/nearby-tracking-is-still-broken-in-pokemon-go-and-might-be-for-a-while/#3384bb9d28a4>,accessed 14th December 2016
