Google Trends: a Holy Grail of Research Tool?

Since the outburst of Google Trends and Google Insights for Search in 2006, millions of people have been using the platform to keep up with trending interests online. The phenomenon continues to proliferate as the two web facilities merged into one powerful service with the ability to provide search trends data. The tool was soon recognized as a useful research tool to gather relevant information in an academic setting. In 2009, preliminary testing even suggested that Google Flu Trends can detect regional outbreaks of influenza 7–10 days before conventional CDC surveillance.[i] What follows is astonishing: ordinary people with internet access now have easy access for tangible data to discover inquiry for them to exploit, whether it is to answer questions of large-scale significances or more trivial personal issues. Does Google Trends constitute a valid research tool? Will it soon steal the job of the social researcher?

Such concern is rational when we look at the capability of the newly discovered instrument. Not only that Google Trends is widely accessible, but it also possesses some distinctive qualities that defy the shortcomings of traditional research tools. Through his book “Everybody Lies: What the Internet Can Tell Us About Who We Really Are,” Stephens-Davidowitz elaborates how big data collected through Google Search might provide more accurate insights into what people are actually thinking compared to other research tools such as in-person interview and even anonymous online survey.[ii] To explain this finding, he argues that people will be more likely to admit to something if they are alone than if others are in the room with them.[iii] Also, his research concluded that the more impersonal the conditions, the more honest people would be. Google searches meet all of these conditions that make the data output to be more genuine.

However, Google Trends does not come without downsides. One of the major hitches in the tool is that it does not provide a proper context of the keyword. Context is essential for the changes in search indices by comparing them with existing measures, and attention needs to be paid to the meaning of search terms to those searching for them to avoid drawing false inferences.[iv] Also, the data gathered from the service is prone towards a biased geographical sample. Inevitably, the data pool will be concentrated in areas with a high computer and internet access, disregarding those in the technologically underdeveloped area. All of these are aspects that need to be considered before incorporating this as a method in academic research.

Google Trends is indeed a breakthrough in academic research as it delivers, in Stephens-Davidowitz’s word, a ‘digital truth serum’ of internet user behavior. Regardless, one important thing to note is that the output does not unswervingly answer the researcher’s question. Eventually, further analysis is required for a conclusion to be reached, leaving a substantial task for human aspect. At best, Google Trends can provide supplementary information to data gathered from traditional data collection and analysis.[v] Therefore, examining the ups and down of data source is imperative when conducting research. The bottom line is while providing a vast range and accessible insight into social trends, Google Trends is not the holy grail of research tool, at least for now.

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[i] Carneiro, H. and Mylonakis, E. (2009). Google Trends: A Web‐Based Tool for Real‐Time Surveillance of Disease Outbreaks. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 49(10), pp.1557-1564.

[ii] Stephens-Davidowitz, S. (2017). Everybody lies. [United States]: HarperLuxe.

[iii] Stephens-Davidowitz, S. (2017). Everybody lies: how Google search reveals our darkest secrets. [online] The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jul/09/everybody-lies-how-google-reveals-darkest-secrets-seth-stephens-davidowitz [Accessed 9 Jul. 2017].

[iv] Mellon, J. (2013). Internet Search Data and Issue Salience: The Properties of Google Trends as a Measure of Issue Salience. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties, 24(1), pp.45-72.

[v] Anderson, K. (2017). More Data, More Problems – Lessons from the Limitations of Google Flu Trends – The Scholarly Kitchen. [online] The Scholarly Kitchen. Available at: https://scholarlykitchen.sspnet.org/2014/10/07/big-data-big-validation-are-the-limitations-of-abstraction-the-achilles-heel-of-big-data/ [Accessed 10 Jul. 2017].