- 12/06/2017
- Category: Commentaries
Recently, Artificial Intelligence (AI) gained unprecedented advancement and milestones. These breakthrough spans from the advanced deep learning function, comprehensive voice recognition, and other complicated automation functions. There are at least six breakthroughs representing these milestones; (1) Tesla Autopilot that brings man with blood clot to hospital, (2) Microsoft AI that can understand human speech better than the humans themselves, (3) Swarm AI that predicts Kentucky Derby horse race, (4) IBM Watson that can diagnose leukemia, (5) MogIA that can predict US elections, and the most astonishing of all is when (6) AlphaGO can beat Lee Sedol, a world champion in Chinese game ‘Go’ in four out of five games.[i] These breakthroughs imply that the world of AI will continue to accelerate in the next following years.
If AI advancement pace and discovery are at the same rate as in this breakthrough, AI will finally come into its finest maturity in 2025.[ii] In a less than a decade, AI will be able to create unprecedented automation and at the same time decide the most positive outcomes for the society, and this will be accessible. Like other industrial and automation breakthrough, one of the core issues is related to the possibility of massive unemployment. Experts are expressing concern about this possibility because AI will displace several blue and white collar jobs in the industry, and at the same time, shift them into lower paying jobs or even permanent unemployment.[iii] Also, current educational systems, as well as economic and political institutions, are not prepared for the massive change.
Figure 1: AI and Future Jobs Forecast[iv]
Even though unemployment forecast can be justified because of the nature of automation that will likely replace human as a source of labors, the fears of unprecedented jobs loss are ignoring the potential job creation in the wake of AI. This mantra of unemployment neglects the nature of automation that AI will provide throughout the industry. There are the jobs that need human ingenuity and using AI in these specific roles will not add any comparative advantage. Understanding the nature of AI automation is imperative because it can provide us knowledge on forecasting the possible jobs creation in the age of AI. According to the study conducted by Tech Cast Global in OECD countries, AI will be responsible for 21 percent loss in routine jobs (factory and clerical work), 1-3 percent in service or knowledge work, and overall will increase global unemployment by 2 percent in 2030. However, the study also foresees possibility for new job creation. Creative works, which are related to leadership, entrepreneurship, innovation, collaboration and the others, are expected to grow dramatically. McKinsey study in 2015 found that creative works are difficult to automate because it revolves around the ingenuity of human experience and social interactions. Jobs that are related with comparative advantage of interpersonal communication, and adaptabilities such as auto mechanics and plumbers, as well as customer-service relations, will less likely be affected by AI.[v] Creative works are highly anticipated in the new industries that will be created by the dawn of AI, which is likely to create a US$10 to US$20 trillion worth of global industry only in the field of energy, environment, and climate change.[vi] Combined with other sectors such as e-commerce, intelligent cars, hi-tech homes, and IoT, creative works are likely to thrive in the age of AI.
The mass hysteria of increase unemployment on industrial and technological revolutions has consistently happened throughout history. The basic foundation of automation and AI that is capable of freeing up labor, and in turn, reduces costs is the mantra of unemployment fears and can be justified by the data presented before. While it might be partially correct, the mantra did not recognize the long run effect of AI which allows the economy to grow and eventually create jobs in certain areas of demand that are unexpected. It ‘s hard to imagine jobs like a digital strategist, social media manager, and front end developer without the existence of massive improvement in our gadget.
Figure 2: AI Structure of Consciousness [vii]
In addition to the possibility of massive job creation in creative works, AI will not change human role anytime soon because of its nature of the structure of consciousness. The structure of consciousness is a metric system to measure the possible functions of an entity based on their state of minds. Think of it as being human in the finest way where your action in society is determined by the complex mix of beliefs, perception, and vision. As shown on Graph.2, AI is indeed capable of automating most of the knowledge-based work and solving tough problems. However, it might not be able to completely reach the consciousness level of vision, purpose, imagination, wisdom, and other human creative aspect. According to Microsoft leading computer scientist, Jaron Lenier, the “Singularity Myth” or the notion which says that AI is capable of duplicating human abilities completely, will be difficult to materialize.[viii] Sympathy, manipulation, and momentum utilization in the unexpected environment are among things that AI might not be able to achieve, at least in 2030.
The major advancement of AI has created a rift in society. Some fears that they will lose their jobs and some believe they can exploit more welfare from it. Although both scenarios are likely to happen, yet there is still time to prepare for anticipating the job loss and embracing the possible job creation. To precisely pinpoint what is likely to happen in the age of AI, it is imperative to understand the nature of AI and jobs. As shown on the data and AI structure of consciousness, creative works are predicted to not only prevail but also grow exponentially. Preparing our human resources on embracing this field will be imperative to counter the possible jobs loss. The society and its institutions have to prepare future assistant aesthetic designer for AIs or sociopreneur with sufficient knowledge since these kinds of roles are the ones that will be created in the age of AI.
picture: Makerbook
References:
[i] Reese, H. (2016). The 6 most exciting AI advances of 2016. [online] TechRepublic. Available at:
[ii] Nudelman, M. (2015). 8 Industries Robots Will Completely Transform By 2025. [online] Business Insider. Available at: http://www.businessinsider.co.id/8-industries-robots-will-completely-transform-by-2025-2015-12/?r=US&IR=T#7mwij17bgBGcvfVm.97
[iii] Smith, A. and Anderson, J (2016). AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs. [online] Pew Research Center. Available at: http://www.pewinternet.org/2014/08/06/future-of-jobs/
[iv] Techast Global (2016).AI and Future of Jobs. [online] Available at: https://www.techcastglobal.com/techcast-publication/ai-and-future-jobs/?p_id=11
[v] Weisenthal J. (2016). Here Are The Jobs That Will Survive The Robot Revolution. [online] Business Insider. Available at: http://www.businessinsider.com/middle-class-jobs-that-will-survive-the-robotics-revolution-2013-8?IR=T&r=US&IR=T
[vi] Techast Global (2016).AI and Future of Jobs. [online] Available at: https://www.techcastglobal.com/techcast-publication/ai-and-future-jobs/?p_id=11
[vii] Halal, W. (2016).AI and Future of Jobs. [online]Techast Global. Available at: https://www.techcastglobal.com/techcast-publication/ai-and-future-jobs/?p_id=11
[viii] Edge. (2014). The Myth Of AI. [online] Available at:https://www.edge.org/conversation/jaron_lanier-the-myth-of-ai
